Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201109 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50     80.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  20.2  18.0  14.7  16.8  18.1  28.9  23.1  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0  12.0  20.0  86.0  80.0  34.0  18.0  11.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0  -1.0 -12.0 -16.0 -27.0  37.0 -18.0  -8.0 VU  U  U  U VU  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   7.0   1.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        1.7%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%       12.1%        8.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%        7.4%        6.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%        7.4%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        7.4%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        8.6%        9.1%        8.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.6%        2.9%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        8.1%        7.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        2.4%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        3.5%        3.6%        3.6%