Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201109 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00     81.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  18.6  15.9  18.9  19.9  28.7  23.2  28.6  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  22.0  58.0 111.0  90.0  45.0  12.0   5.0  U  U  N  F  F  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0 -16.0 -17.0 -13.0   4.0  10.0 -19.0 -30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  57.0  54.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   3.0   1.0  -1.0   5.0   8.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.9%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       12.4%        8.1%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        6.5%        5.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        6.5%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        6.5%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.1%        8.7%        7.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.9%        2.4%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        7.1%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        1.7%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.0%        2.7%        2.9%