Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201109 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00     82.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  16.8  21.5  21.5  20.3  31.2  27.6  37.3  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  74.0  83.0  75.0  49.0  25.0  11.0   7.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0 -24.0 -23.0 -11.0  14.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  10.0   6.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        3.0%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       12.9%        8.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.5%        6.7%        5.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        6.7%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%        6.7%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        7.2%        7.7%        7.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.8%        2.0%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        4.8%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        1.1%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        1.5%        1.6%