Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201109 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20     84.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  20.0  22.1  22.2  29.1  30.0  36.8  38.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0  62.0  54.0  46.0  21.0  11.0  10.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0 -22.0  -9.0   4.0  14.0  22.0 -16.0 -15.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  51.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  57.0  54.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   7.0   6.0   8.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.6%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.4%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        3.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        2.3%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        0.9%        1.0%