Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201110 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40     85.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  20.1  19.5  19.2  34.4  34.4  42.3  45.3  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  66.0  54.0  46.0  31.0  11.0   8.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  -8.0  14.0  21.0  -8.0   3.0  -5.0 -28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  54.0  55.0  47.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   9.0   3.0   5.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.4%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%       13.9%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        5.8%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        5.5%        3.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        5.5%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%        6.8%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        1.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        3.8%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        1.1%        1.0%