Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201110 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.00     85.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  22.4  21.3  29.2  30.2  39.3  43.1  51.4  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  53.0  49.0  45.0  25.0  11.0   8.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0  11.0   3.0   5.0  20.0  -7.0 -45.0 -67.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  49.0  51.0  52.0  55.0  49.0  42.0  31.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -3.0   3.0   2.0   9.0   3.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        3.7%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.7%       17.3%       11.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        7.3%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        7.3%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        7.0%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%       10.0%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        2.8%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        3.9%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%