Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201110 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60     85.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  19.6  28.8  30.0  33.4  39.6  46.4  49.7  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  57.0  55.0  47.0  32.0  13.0   9.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  -2.0  -6.0 -26.0 -19.0   4.0 -26.0 -68.0  U  U  U VU  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  54.0  48.0  39.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   1.0   4.0   1.0   4.0  -2.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.7%        8.4%        8.1%
 25kt / 24h       11.8%       25.6%       18.7%
 30kt / 24h        8.3%       13.9%       11.1%
 35kt / 24h        5.0%       13.9%        9.5%
 40kt / 24h        5.0%       13.1%        9.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%       14.3%        9.8%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        4.9%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        4.6%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%