Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201110 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90     85.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  31.3  32.4  32.7  41.4  39.8  48.1  36.0  N  U  U  U VU  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  69.0  62.0  50.0  22.0  11.0   6.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   1.0 -11.0   0.0 -20.0 -12.0 -59.0 -56.0  U  U  U  U VU  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  52.0  42.0  30.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   5.0   5.0  -1.0   6.0   2.0  -7.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.9%        4.8%        5.4%
 25kt / 24h        6.8%       15.0%       10.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%        6.3%        5.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        6.3%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%        6.3%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%        6.3%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%