Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201111 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     84.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  32.8  33.7  35.6  39.0  50.3  62.0  49.3  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  44.0  19.0   9.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0 -22.0   1.0  -6.0  -1.0 -20.0   7.0 -51.0  U VU  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  49.0  34.0  24.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  11.0   0.0   3.0  10.0   1.0  -7.0 -13.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%        5.8%        6.9%
 25kt / 24h        7.0%       15.2%       11.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%        7.6%        6.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%        7.6%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        6.6%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        5.4%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%