Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201111 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40     84.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.8  31.5  33.1  39.2  40.8  54.2  63.1  70.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  12.0   7.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0   6.0 -14.0   4.0 -19.0 -39.0 -29.0 -38.0 VU  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  56.0  52.0  41.0  30.0  25.0  25.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   1.0   6.0   8.0  10.0   0.0  -5.0   0.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        2.5%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        6.9%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        2.6%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        2.6%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        2.6%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%