Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201111 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80     83.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  33.4  38.5  35.9  43.9  62.1  63.3  58.1  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   6.0  17.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0   1.0   5.0  10.0 -24.0 -23.0 -58.0   1.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  54.0  50.0  35.0  30.0  30.0  28.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0  17.0  22.0   6.0   8.0   2.0   7.0  N  N  U VU  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        2.1%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        5.7%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        2.5%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        2.5%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.5%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%