Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201111 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80     83.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  38.8  37.4  40.8  53.3  70.5  86.8  91.4  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  16.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  26.0   8.0   6.0  19.0   2.0 -36.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  54.0  49.0  41.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  26.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  13.0  17.0  19.0  13.0  17.0  -3.0 -10.0  N  U  U VU  U  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        0.6%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.7%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%