Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201112 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60     83.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.0  35.6  42.5  55.6  68.3 100.3 111.9 111.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   9.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  98.6  98.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  69.0   3.0  13.0  16.0  17.0   9.0   9.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  40.0  31.0  28.0  30.0  30.0  31.0  31.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  15.0  14.0  16.0 -27.0  -3.0-115.0-115.0  U  U  U  U VF  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%