Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201112 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.80     82.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.9  41.9  54.8  64.7  83.3  95.9  95.9  95.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   8.0   8.0  18.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3 104.4 104.4 104.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  22.0  35.0  36.0  50.0 111.0 111.0 111.0  N  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  30.0  26.0  29.0  31.0  33.0  33.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  16.0  24.0  20.0 -50.0  28.0  28.0  28.0 VU  U VU VU VF VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%