Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201112 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.20     81.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.5  58.7  68.1  77.0  84.0  93.3  93.3  93.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 127.0 120.1  78.6  50.0  50.0  50.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  34.0  -2.0  30.0  46.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   29.0  26.0  30.0  32.0  37.0  42.0  42.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  25.0  11.0 -11.0   9.0-140.0-140.0-140.0  N VU  U  F  U VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%