Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL302020 201110 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.80     41.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        53.8  63.3  69.5  77.9  65.6  60.0  38.1  36.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.7 101.5  95.5  91.6  84.4  79.3  73.0  67.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  56.0  71.0  27.0 -23.0  23.0  55.0  81.0  N  N  N  U VU  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  40.0  36.0  36.0  37.0  37.0  39.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 -24.0 -13.0  -5.0 -15.0 -10.0 -19.0  -4.0 VF VF VF  F VF  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%