Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL302020 201110 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.80     40.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        62.3  68.4  73.6  69.4  60.7  49.1  33.1  31.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.5  97.4  91.6  86.2  82.7  76.1  71.5  67.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  28.0  20.0  -1.0  28.0  31.0  61.0  83.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  36.0  37.0  37.0  36.0  38.0  37.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -12.0  -6.0  -9.0  -7.0 -14.0 -13.0   1.0 VF  F  F  F  F VF VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons