Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL302020 201110 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90     38.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        67.8  72.8  70.1  62.1  57.9  40.9  39.0  32.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.5  73.0  71.2  67.7  61.1  55.0  49.4  46.7  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  23.0  11.0  33.0  29.0  62.0  67.0  67.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  40.0  40.0  39.0  39.0  45.0  48.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -7.0 -10.0 -11.0  -6.0 -22.0  -2.0  12.0 VF  F  F  F  F VF  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.1%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons