Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL302020 201111 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.60     33.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        61.6  59.3  47.6  38.8  38.8  30.7  33.1  40.9 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.0  67.7  63.0  61.5  55.8  51.7  50.4  49.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  28.0  28.0  71.0  39.0  95.0  -2.0 -83.0  N  U  U  N  N  F  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  43.0  42.0  41.0  43.0  45.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -5.0  -9.0 -10.0   4.0   8.0   2.0   5.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons