Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL302020 201111 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.30     32.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        56.5  45.8  39.0  37.2  32.8  26.9  39.1  40.7 VU VU  U  U  U  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.1  63.0  61.5  58.6  53.0  51.7  47.9  46.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  -2.0  42.0  55.0  52.0  66.0-116.0 -21.0  N  U  N  N  N  N VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  43.0  42.0  43.0  40.0  44.0  46.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -13.0 -13.0 -15.0   2.0   0.0   6.0  -4.0  F VF VF VF  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons