Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL302020 201112 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.00     31.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.2  34.9  33.4  36.3  27.6  20.3  47.1  43.5 VU  U  U  U  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.1  63.0  60.0  57.2  54.4  51.7  49.2  46.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0  45.0  58.0   4.0 103.0 -64.0 -59.0 -25.0  U  N  N  U  F VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  38.0  39.0  39.0  40.0  42.0  43.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -12.0  -8.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0 VF  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons