Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL302020 201112 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50     29.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  37.8  36.1  31.5  26.9  52.4  47.9  50.7  U  U  U  U  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  57.2  54.4  53.0  49.2  45.5  43.2  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0   9.0  36.0 100.0 -37.0 -47.0 -49.0 -40.0  N  U  N  F VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  39.0  40.0  41.0  44.0  43.0  45.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -2.0   0.0   6.0  -1.0   3.0   1.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons