Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL302020 201113 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.90     25.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  25.3  27.2  41.3  48.5  56.1  52.7  49.7  N  N  N VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.7  55.4  52.9  50.5  47.0  44.8  44.8  45.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0  21.0 -34.0 -59.0 -37.0 -68.0 -61.0 -50.0  F  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  40.0  43.0  45.0  48.0  45.0  38.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons