Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL302020 201113 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.90     23.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  45.4  52.7  47.1  53.0  50.6  48.4  31.9  N VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.9  50.5  49.3  47.0  44.8  43.8  44.8  44.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -32.0 -58.0 -14.0  -9.0 -63.0 -69.0 -42.0  -7.0 VU VU  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  42.0  47.0  48.0  46.0  40.0  35.0  33.0 VU VU VU  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0   1.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons