Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL302020 201114 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.00     22.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.4  51.4  48.4  47.3  51.8  48.8  44.5  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.5  53.2  52.0  49.8  48.8  48.8  50.9  45.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -69.0 -34.0 -13.0 -16.0 -52.0 -73.0 -29.0  32.0 VU VU  U  U VU VU VU  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  47.0  51.0  50.0  44.0  36.0  32.0  35.0 VU VU  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   7.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   8.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons