Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL302020 201114 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.00     21.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        51.8  48.0  46.4  50.3  47.9  47.9  36.0  24.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.3  67.0  65.9  64.8  63.8  63.8  62.7  55.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -30.0 -14.0 -16.0 -46.0 -49.0 -39.0  16.0  31.0 VU  U  U VU VU VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  50.0  50.0  46.0  41.0  34.0  34.0  40.0 VU  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0   3.0   8.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons