Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL302020 201114 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.80     20.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.2  48.9  51.8  54.1  51.9  43.4  25.6  37.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.2  62.0  60.9  59.8  59.8  59.8  55.7  49.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0 -14.0 -47.0 -59.0 -40.0 -22.0  10.0  26.0  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  45.0  44.0  38.0  32.0  38.0  36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0  11.0   0.0 -56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons