Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL312020 201113 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     74.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.6  16.4  16.0  14.0  13.3   9.5  15.6  16.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  53.0  54.0  56.0  57.0  48.0  31.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  65.0  95.0  57.0  75.0  85.0 110.0  82.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        7.5%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h       21.4%       49.2%       35.3%
 30kt / 24h       11.5%       29.2%       20.4%
 35kt / 24h        5.0%       29.2%       17.1%
 40kt / 24h        5.0%       29.2%       17.1%
 45kt / 36h       25.8%       65.4%       45.6%
 55kt / 36h       17.9%       45.2%       31.6%
 55kt / 48h       49.9%       56.2%       53.0%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       54.2%       39.5%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       70.7%       66.3%