Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL312020 201113 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90     74.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  16.9  15.0  10.2   8.9  11.6  16.9  15.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  55.0  46.0  29.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  70.0  62.0  85.0  76.0 118.0  89.0  88.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  67.0  69.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.2%       10.6%        8.9%
 25kt / 24h       32.5%       58.1%       45.3%
 30kt / 24h       19.5%       41.8%       30.7%
 35kt / 24h        9.7%       41.8%       25.7%
 40kt / 24h        9.7%       41.8%       25.7%
 45kt / 36h       35.9%       74.1%       55.0%
 55kt / 36h       26.1%       58.0%       42.1%
 55kt / 48h       50.8%       62.7%       56.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       62.1%       43.4%
 65kt / 72h       59.0%       70.9%       64.9%