Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL312020 201114 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70     74.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  15.4  14.6  15.9  12.6  18.9  16.0  16.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  51.0  51.0  53.0  56.0  46.0  29.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  69.0 109.0 120.0  93.0 119.0  80.0  97.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        6.7%        5.0%
 25kt / 24h       25.9%       49.2%       37.6%
 30kt / 24h       13.8%       30.5%       22.1%
 35kt / 24h        5.6%       30.5%       18.1%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%       30.5%       17.4%
 45kt / 36h       27.8%       61.8%       44.8%
 55kt / 36h       17.0%       40.8%       28.9%
 55kt / 48h       46.9%       51.1%       49.0%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       44.1%       34.4%
 65kt / 72h       59.5%       60.7%       60.1%