Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL312020 201114 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60     74.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  15.2  17.8  15.8  14.2  16.6  14.4  15.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  51.0  53.0  57.0  53.0  43.0  26.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0 110.0 113.0  82.0 120.0 112.0  85.0  91.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  68.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        3.2%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h       12.7%       30.7%       21.7%
 30kt / 24h        6.5%       14.9%       10.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%       14.9%        8.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%       14.9%        8.6%
 45kt / 36h       20.2%       40.5%       30.3%
 55kt / 36h       10.5%       18.3%       14.4%
 55kt / 48h       39.9%       35.5%       37.7%
 70kt / 48h       24.6%       23.6%       24.1%
 65kt / 72h       60.2%       47.7%       53.9%