Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL312020 201114 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     75.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  12.7  13.3  12.1  15.1  12.4  13.9  16.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  46.0  53.0  55.0  43.0  25.0  29.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  93.0  85.0  70.0 113.0  86.0  82.0  71.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  69.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        5.1%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       17.2%       42.4%       29.8%
 30kt / 24h        9.1%       24.7%       16.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%       24.7%       13.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       24.7%       13.5%
 45kt / 36h       24.1%       52.3%       38.2%
 55kt / 36h       13.4%       28.3%       20.9%
 55kt / 48h       43.7%       45.7%       44.7%
 70kt / 48h       24.5%       33.1%       28.8%
 65kt / 72h       52.2%       52.2%       52.2%