Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL312020 201114 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     76.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  11.9  10.2  11.9  14.8  15.6  16.2  17.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  49.0  54.0  54.0  32.0  25.0  31.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   108.0 104.0 116.0 117.0  97.0 107.0  98.0 124.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.3%       15.0%       14.2%
 25kt / 24h       50.5%       68.0%       59.3%
 30kt / 24h       35.6%       60.7%       48.2%
 35kt / 24h       23.5%       60.7%       42.1%
 40kt / 24h       23.5%       60.7%       42.1%
 45kt / 36h       46.4%       70.0%       58.2%
 55kt / 36h       30.2%       51.1%       40.7%
 55kt / 48h       50.1%       57.6%       53.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       47.6%       36.1%
 65kt / 72h       48.3%       53.6%       51.0%