Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL312020 201115 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60     76.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.0  10.4  10.9  14.0  13.9  15.4  16.3  17.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  51.0  54.0  52.0  29.0  27.0  32.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  95.0 107.0 115.0  99.0 117.0  68.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  69.0  71.0  72.0  70.0  73.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       51.9%       41.3%       46.6%
 25kt / 24h       75.8%       85.7%       80.8%
 30kt / 24h       70.3%       85.7%       78.0%
 35kt / 24h       68.4%       85.7%       77.1%
 40kt / 24h       68.4%       85.7%       77.1%
 45kt / 36h       71.3%       82.9%       77.1%
 55kt / 36h       50.4%       73.2%       61.8%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       71.4%       61.3%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       61.2%       43.0%
 65kt / 72h       37.6%       55.5%       46.6%