Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL312020 201115 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30     78.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     65.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.4  13.2  16.0  16.6  20.1  19.6  15.5  14.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  46.0  37.0  26.0  26.0  22.0   8.0   4.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   110.0 131.0 102.0 100.0  97.0  77.0  68.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  72.0  78.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       91.9%       74.3%       83.1%
 25kt / 24h       96.2%       95.2%       95.7%
 30kt / 24h       96.2%       95.2%       95.7%
 35kt / 24h       96.2%       95.2%       95.7%
 40kt / 24h       96.2%       95.2%       95.7%
 45kt / 36h       82.0%       79.9%       81.0%
 55kt / 36h       58.6%       69.7%       64.2%
 55kt / 48h       47.4%       65.7%       56.6%
 70kt / 48h       20.7%       41.1%       30.9%
 65kt / 72h       14.1%       30.7%       22.4%