Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL312020 201115 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20     78.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  16.1  16.5  20.1  22.6  19.0  13.2  15.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  35.0  26.0  22.0  29.0   4.0   4.0  12.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   117.0 103.0 103.0 136.0 100.0  94.0  96.0  77.0  F  F  F VF  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       66.2%       56.3%       61.2%
 25kt / 24h       80.6%       88.9%       84.8%
 30kt / 24h       77.7%       88.9%       83.3%
 35kt / 24h       72.3%       88.9%       80.6%
 40kt / 24h       72.3%       88.9%       80.6%
 45kt / 36h       57.9%       62.0%       60.0%
 55kt / 36h       30.2%       43.5%       36.8%
 55kt / 48h       31.2%       52.1%       41.7%
 70kt / 48h        8.9%       21.9%       15.4%
 65kt / 72h       10.6%       20.7%       15.7%