Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL312020 201116 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20     79.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  13.0  16.1  18.2  18.1  17.8  17.0  11.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  26.0  22.0  26.0   7.0   7.0   8.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0 102.0 137.0 151.0  86.0  99.0  64.0  63.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  73.0  71.0  73.0  79.0  79.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       60.7%       47.4%       54.1%
 25kt / 24h       72.3%       80.6%       76.4%
 30kt / 24h       66.9%       80.6%       73.7%
 35kt / 24h       66.1%       80.6%       73.3%
 40kt / 24h       66.1%       80.6%       73.3%
 45kt / 36h       69.6%       54.0%       61.8%
 55kt / 36h       27.0%       36.6%       31.8%
 55kt / 48h       28.2%       36.2%       32.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        6.5%       14.8%       10.6%