Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL312020 201116 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     80.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  16.6  18.2  23.2  19.7  19.7  15.5  18.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  22.0  26.0  29.0   4.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0 127.0 163.0 140.0 107.0  75.0  64.0  40.0  F  F VF VF  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  69.0  71.0  73.0  76.0  77.0  82.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       57.0%       23.3%       40.1%
 25kt / 24h       42.9%       33.5%       38.2%
 30kt / 24h       32.7%       29.1%       30.9%
 35kt / 24h       21.5%       29.1%       25.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%