Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL312020 201116 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     81.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    45.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  17.3  22.2  21.1  19.7  14.6  18.1  19.6  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  28.0  30.0   7.0  10.0   4.0   7.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   139.0 172.0 124.0 106.0  88.0  66.0  23.0  -3.0 VF VF  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  78.0  77.0  80.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       42.9%       11.5%       27.2%
 25kt / 24h       22.0%       13.8%       17.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%