Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL312020 201116 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     82.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  19.0  20.0  19.0  18.9  16.5  16.5  16.5  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  30.0   8.0   4.0   9.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   168.0 118.0 137.0 126.0  85.0  23.0  23.0  23.0 VF  F VF  F  F  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  74.0  76.0  81.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   8.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       35.0%        0.0%       17.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%