Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL312020 201117 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60     83.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     65.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  19.2  20.5  22.3  15.8  15.8  15.8  15.8  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0   8.0   8.0   6.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0 158.0 150.0 158.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  F VF VF VF  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  76.0  78.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   5.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        0.0%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%