Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL312020 201117 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70     84.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -55.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  20.0  19.3  15.5  18.6  18.6  18.6  18.6  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0  12.0  10.0   8.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0 110.0  75.0  65.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   3.0   1.0   3.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%