Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL312020 201118 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70     86.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  17.1  17.1  17.1  17.1  17.1  17.1  17.1  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   122.0  98.0  98.0  98.0  98.0  98.0  98.0  98.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        2.4%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h       11.7%        1.8%        6.7%