Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL312020 201118 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     87.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   103.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        4.8%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h       11.3%        5.3%        8.3%