Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012020 200425 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  23.8  28.9  35.4  39.4  41.3  38.7  39.6  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8  96.0  85.0  75.4  69.3  65.9  67.0  68.2  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -30.0  -6.0   8.0  20.0  30.0  17.0  -3.0 -31.0 VU  U  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  53.0  50.0  51.0  50.0  47.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.6  23.8  28.9  35.4  39.4  41.3  38.7  39.6  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%