Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012020 200426 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    117.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  30.2  35.1  39.6  40.5  37.0  37.3  38.8  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.0  85.0  76.7  70.5  69.3  70.5  71.7  71.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  31.0  23.0  11.0  21.0   0.0 -32.0 -42.0  U  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  44.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.1  30.2  35.1  39.6  40.5  37.0  37.3  38.8  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%