Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022020 200531 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70     90.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  18.1  19.5  21.3  21.3  21.3  21.3  21.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  18.0   4.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   169.0 159.0 154.0 162.0 162.0 162.0 162.0 162.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   87.0  87.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  86.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.7  18.1  19.5  21.3  21.3  21.3  21.3  21.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        8.2%       21.1%       14.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        6.8%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        6.8%        3.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        3.1%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h       11.8%       31.1%       21.4%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%       11.4%        8.0%
 55kt / 48h       30.2%       25.9%       28.0%
 70kt / 48h       19.4%        9.3%       14.3%
 65kt / 72h       55.0%       34.1%       44.5%