Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032020 200624 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.10    132.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     33.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  14.9  12.4  10.5  11.9  12.3  15.7  23.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  12.0  15.0  17.0  15.0  11.0   8.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 122.9 122.9 122.9 122.9 122.9 120.7 114.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0 -10.0 -10.0  -7.0  17.0   7.0  15.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.2  14.9  12.4  10.5  11.9  12.3  15.7  23.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.5%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%       10.8%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        4.1%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        3.1%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        0.9%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%       20.7%       11.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%        8.5%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.8%        5.2%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        3.2%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        2.9%        1.7%