Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032020 200625 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    134.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  15.7  19.5  21.5  22.6  25.4  26.4  26.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  13.0  11.0  10.0   9.0   8.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 122.9 122.9 120.7 118.6 114.4 110.5 106.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0  11.0  32.0  46.0  34.0  29.0   0.0   5.0 VU  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.8  15.7  19.5  21.5  22.6  25.4  26.4  26.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.9%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.9%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        7.1%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%