Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032020 200625 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50    135.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  17.8  20.5  21.1  22.4  23.4  22.5  19.4  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  18.0  15.0  15.0  11.0   7.0   6.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 125.1 125.1 122.9 118.6 114.4 112.4 110.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  22.0  18.0  38.0  22.0  21.0   0.0   4.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.1  17.8  20.5  21.1  22.4  23.4  22.5  19.4  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        7.4%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.4%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        8.7%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.5%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        2.1%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.2%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        3.0%        2.3%